基于灾损定量识别的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划
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引用本文:余卫东,胡程达,张轩宇,等.基于灾损定量识别的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):1-6.Yu Weidong, Hu Chengda, Zhang Xuanyu,et al.Risk Division of Spring Frost Damage in Winter Wheat in Henan Province by Quantitative Analysis of Disaster Effects[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):1-6.
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作者单位
余卫东,胡程达,张轩宇,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.001
基金项目:
中文摘要:利用河南省30个农业气象观测站1981—2008年的冬小麦观测资料和气象资料,基于晚霜冻指数和灾度计算了河南省冬小麦晚霜冻发生概率和灾害程度。通过在WOFOST作物模型中增加霜冻影响过程,实现了晚霜冻灾损定量提取,建立了以晚霜冻危险性、暴露性和脆弱性为评价因子的风险评估模型,按照高风险区、次高风险区、中等风险区、次低风险区和低风险区5个等级标准进行了河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划。区划结果表明:冬小麦晚霜冻风险程度较高的地区主要分布在河南省沈丘、卢氏和林州等地,其风险指数都在0.6以上;低风险区主要分布在伊川、巩义、信阳、南阳、太康、濮阳和杞县等地,风险指数都在0.2以下。
中文关键词:晚霜冻  WOFOST模型  灾损识别  风险评估指标  风险区划
 
Risk Division of Spring Frost Damage in Winter Wheat in Henan Province by Quantitative Analysis of Disaster Effects
Abstract:According to the spring frost index and disaster degree index, the probability and degrees of winter wheat frost disaster were analyzed using the crop data of winter wheat and daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2008 at 30 agrometeorological observation stations in Henan province. By adding the effects of spring frost on growing and development of winter wheat in WOFOST crop model, quantitative analysis of spring frost effects was realized. Three evaluation factors of danger, exposure and fragility of spring frost were selected as the risk factors, and the corresponding risk evaluation model of spring frost damage was established. According to the risk index of spring frost, five levels of the spring frost risk were divided for the whole winter wheat planting area of Henan province, which was high risk region, sub high risk region, medium risk region, sub low risk region and low risk region. The results showed that the regions with risk index higher than 0.6 mainly distributed at the counties of Shenqiu, Lushi and Linzhou, while the regions with risk index lower than 0.2 mainly distributed at the counties of Yichuan, Gongyi, Xinyang, Nanyang, Taikang, Puyang and Qixian.
Keywords:spring frost  WOFOST model  identification of the loss caused by disasters  index of risk assessment  risk division
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