WOFOST模型在东北春玉米产区的验证与适应性评价
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引用本文:刘 维,侯英雨,吴门新,等.WOFOST模型在东北春玉米产区的验证与适应性评价[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):7-13.Liu Wei, Hou Yingyu, Wu Menxin, et al.Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of WOFOST Model in Spring Maize Area of Northeast[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):7-13.
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作者单位
刘 维,侯英雨,吴门新,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.002
基金项目:
中文摘要:校准与验证春玉米WOFOST模型,为模型本地化、区域化应用提供研究依据。采用东北春玉米田间观测数据,使用全局敏感性分析EFAST方法对WOFOST模型参数进行敏感性分析,结合土壤数据和同期气象数据等资料对模型进行参数校正与优化,确定春玉米的作物参数;利用独立的观测数据,对春玉米生育期、叶面积指数、各生物量等指标进行详细的验证与适应性评价。结果表明:1)针对不同区域进行作物模型敏感性分析筛选出的作物参数有一定差异,但对产量影响最敏感的前5位总敏感参数相同。2)模型对春玉米生育期的模拟较好,开花期和乳熟期的相对模拟平均误差在1 d左右,在成熟期的平均误差在3 d左右。3)模型对各生物量模拟的回归系数α与确定系数R2较好,均通过显著性检验,从模型整体模拟效果来看,地上部分总生物量和叶面积指数为89%和86%,整体模拟性能较好;残差聚集指数(CRM)为14%和4%,表明模型对地上生物量和叶面积指数的模拟值略偏低。4)通过校准模型作物参数值,WOFOST模型能够较好地模拟东北春玉米生长发育及其生物量的动态积累过程,能够应用于东北地区春玉米生产。
中文关键词:春玉米  WOFOST  验证评价  东北
 
Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of WOFOST Model in Spring Maize Area of Northeast
Abstract:Calibration and validation of spring maize WOFOST model is a key and essential process in its localization and regionalization application. The global sensitivity analysis method EFAST was used to analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty of the WOFOST model using the northeast spring maize field data observed from agro meteorological stations. Parameter calibration and optimization were finished and crop parameters of spring maize were identified combining with soil and meteorological data. Independent observed data with spring maize was used to verify and adaption evaluate the development stage, leaf area index (LAI), total biomass, biomass for each organ, etc. The results were as follows. 1) The crop model parameters which were selected by EFAST had several differences in different areas, but the top 5 total order sensitive index on yield were the same. 2) The model could simulate the phenology of spring maize with 1 day mean difference for anthesis and milk stage, 3 days mean difference for mature stages. 3) The regression coefficient α and determination coefficient R2 of each biomass organ were simulated well, which passed the significance test. The total modeling efficiency was better, 89% for above ground total biomass and 86% for LAI. CRM for the model was 14% for above ground total biomass and 4% for LAI, which indicated that the simulated above ground total biomass and LAI were below the measured. 4) Results showed that by calibration the crop parameter, WOFOST model could satisfactorily simulate the growth stage and biomass dynamical accumulated process of spring maize, and could be applied in scenarios analysis study in spring maize area of northeast.
Keywords:spring maize  WOFOST  validation and evaluation  northeast
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