基于气候变化的稻纵卷叶螟在我国的风险区预测与分析
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引用本文:姜 淦,王茹琳,王闫利,等.基于气候变化的稻纵卷叶螟在我国的风险区预测与分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):21-27.Jiang Gan, Wang RuLin, Wang Yanli, et al.Forecast and Analysis of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis Guenee Risk Region in China Based on Climate Change[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):21-27.
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作者单位
姜 淦,王茹琳,王闫利,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.004
基金项目:
中文摘要:气候条件与病虫害生命活动关系密切,是决定病虫害分布的主要因素之一。稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee)属螟蛾科,是危害水稻的世界性害虫之一。研究表明,其暴发原因与气象因素密切相关,因此有必要分析气候变化影响下该虫适生区的变化。利用稻纵卷叶螟地理分布信息和环境数据,借助最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS,评估稻纵卷叶螟“当前时段”的分布状态,预测2020年时段稻纵卷叶螟在我国的风险区变化。结果表明:稻纵卷叶螟在中国的极高风险区为上海、浙江大部、江苏南部、安徽大部、湖北中东部、湖南东部、四川西南部、广西中部等地;高风险区为贵州、广东、福建、江西、重庆、广西大部。2020年时段A1b情景下极高风险区在中国分布范围变化不大,高风险区面积变化亦不明显;A2a情景下分布范围变化显著,浙江、江西、湖北、湖南等省极高风险区面积大幅度减少,高风险区面积显著增加;B2a排放情景下风险区变化情况与A2a情景类似,极高风险区面积明显减少。
中文关键词:稻纵卷叶螟  MaxEnt  风险分析  预测
 
Forecast and Analysis of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis Guenee Risk Region in China Based on Climate Change
Abstract:Climatic conditions are closely related to the life activity of pests, and they are one of the main factors affecting the distribution of pests and diseases. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee is a wordwide pest of rice. Study showed that its outbreak is closely related to the meteorological factors. Therefor it is necessary to research the risk range change of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee under climate change. The current distribution state of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee was estimated and the risk range change by 2020s in China were predicted using geographical distribution information of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee and environmental data, by means of MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The results showed that, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, south Jiangsu, mid eastern Hubei, east Hunan, southwest Sichuan and middle Guangxi are the extremly high risk areas for Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee in China. The high risk areas are in Guizhou, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and most part of Guagnxi. By 2020s, under the A1b emissions scenario, the extremely high and high risk areas of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee change little. Under A2a scenarios, the areas change significantly, the extremely high risk areas in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, etc. decrease greatly, while high risk areas increase significantly. Under B2a scenarios, the change of risk areas are similar to that under A2a, the extremely high risk areas decrease significantly.
Keywords:Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee  MaxEnt  risk analysis  prediction
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