基于EEMD方法的河南省倒春寒时空分布分析
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引用本文:徐岩岩,常 军.基于EEMD方法的河南省倒春寒时空分布分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):28-32.Xu Yanyan, Chang Jun.Spatial and Temporal Distribution Analysis of Late Spring Cold in Henan Province Based on EEMD Method[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):28-32.
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作者单位
徐岩岩,常 军  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.005
基金项目:
中文摘要:根据1961—2014年河南省100个站3—4月的逐日气温资料,以及河南省倒春寒标准,建立倒春寒发生次数的时间序列,采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)、Mann-Kendall等方法研究了河南省倒春寒时空分布特征。结果表明,河南倒春寒发生次数基本上呈现出自西南向东北逐渐增多的空间格局,2~3级倒春寒发生次数呈现出北少南多的空间格局。河南整个中部地区发生倒春寒的总次数较多,并且也会发生较为严重的倒春寒。通过EEMD分析,IMF1模态和趋势项基本反映了倒春寒的演变规律。河南倒春寒的年发生次数有一个明显的准5 a周期振荡,且发生次数呈明显的减少趋势。2000年和2005年为突变点,在春季增暖的气候背景下倒春寒年发生次数开始减少。
中文关键词:倒春寒  EEMD  突变分析  时空分布
 
Spatial and Temporal Distribution Analysis of Late Spring Cold in Henan Province Based on EEMD Method
Abstract:Based on the 1961—2014 observation data of daily temperature from 100 meteorological stations in Henan province, and combining with the late spring cold (LSC) division standard, this paper establishes the time series of LSC’s frequency and analyzes the spatio temporal characteristics of LSC in Henan province based on EEMD and Mann Kendall method. The result showed that the frequency of LSC basically presented a gradually increasing pattern from southwest to northeast. Although the 2—3 times LSC presented a north less south more space pattern. The total number of LSC was more in central Henan, where inclined to more severe LSC. IMF1 modal and the trend of cardinal reflected the evolution law of LSC by analysis of the EEMD. Henan LSC’s frequency had an obvious quasi periodic oscillation for five years, and the trend of the frequency decreased significantly. Year 2000 and 2005 were the mutation points, under the climate background of the spring heating LSC’s frequency began to decrease.
Keywords:late spring cold  EEMD  abrupt change analysis  spatial and temporal distribution
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