西天山气象因子对融雪期积雪深度影响通径分析
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引用本文:胡淑娟,雷晓云,邢 坤,等.西天山气象因子对融雪期积雪深度影响通径分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):33-37.Hu Shujuan, Lei Xiaoyun, Xing Kun, et al.Path Analysis on Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Snow Depth in Snowmelt Period of West Tianshan Mountains[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):33-37.
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作者单位
胡淑娟,雷晓云,邢 坤,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.006
基金项目:
中文摘要:积雪深度的变化受到多种气象因子共同影响。基于天山积雪雪崩站观测的水文气象资料,通过数理统计、标准化处理、通径分析等方法探索气象因子之间的相互作用对积雪深度变化的影响。研究结果表明:融雪期大气温度、净辐射、相对湿度等6个气象因子对积雪深度变化的影响程度不同,净辐射与积雪深度相关程度最高。气象因子之间有着不同程度的相互联系,相对湿度与降水之间的相关系数高达0.854,相对湿度与降水之间有着密切的联系。直接通径系数反映独立气象因子对积雪深度的直接影响程度,间接通径系数反映独立气象因子在其他气象因子的影响下对积雪深度的间接影响程度。根据积雪深度决定系数绝对值的大小可以得到,对积雪深度变化贡献力由大到小的气象因子依次为:净辐射、地表温度、大气温度、降水、相对湿度、风速;积雪深度的剩余系数为0.353,说明除了本研究的6个气象因子以外还存在着其他影响积雪深度变化的因素。
中文关键词:积雪深度  通径分析  直接作用  间接影响  气象因子
 
Path Analysis on Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Snow Depth in Snowmelt Period of West Tianshan Mountains
Abstract:The variation of snow depth is influenced by a combination of meteorological factors. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of Tianshan snow cover and avalanche research station, this paper has analyzed the impact of interactions between meteorological factors on variation of snow depth, through mathematical statistics, standardization and path analysis, etc. Analysis results show that in snowmelt period, the six meteorological factors such as atmospheric temperature, net radiation, relative humidity, etc affect snow depth in different degree, the correlation between net radiation and snow depth is the highest. The correlation between meteorological factors are different, the correlation between relative humidity and precipitation is close, correlation coefficient is as high as 0.854. The direct path index reflects the direct impact of independent meteorological factors on snow depth, while indirect path index reflects the indirect impact of independent meteorological factors on snow depth, under the influence of other meteorological factors. According to the absolute coefficient of determination, the contribution of meteorological factors on snow depth is net radiation, surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed from big to small in turn. The residual coefficient of snow depth is 0.353, indicates that except for the six meteorological factors we study in this paper, there are other influence factors of snow depth change.
Keywords:snow depth  path analysis  direct effect  indirect effect  meteorological factor
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