海河流域太阳辐射计算模型评估及时空变异规律
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引用本文:赵 娜,王治国,张复明,等.海河流域太阳辐射计算模型评估及时空变异规律[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):53-58.Zhao Na, Wang Zhiguo, Zhang Fuming, et al.Calculation Model Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Variations of Solar Radiation in Haihe Basin[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):53-58.
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作者单位
赵 娜,王治国,张复明,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.009
基金项目:
中文摘要:太阳辐射是气候形成和演变过程中重要的驱动力,研究太阳辐射的计算模型及时空变异规律对地球和气候系统意义重大。根据1960—2012年海河流域6个站点太阳辐射资料和45个站点日照时数、气温等气象资料,建立了4种太阳辐射计算模型,采用平均相对误差和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数评估模型精确程度,在此基础上利用优选出的模型计算45个站点多年逐月太阳辐射值,进而研究海河流域太阳辐射的时空变异规律。结果表明:Angstr?m-Prescott模型最适用于估算海河流域的太阳辐射;从时间变化来看,海河流域1960—2012年太阳辐射总体上呈显著下降趋势,平均变化速率为-10 MJ·m-2·a-1,春夏秋冬四季均呈现显著减少趋势,其中夏季减少幅度最大,其次是秋季,春季和冬季减少幅度最小;从空间分布来看,海河流域西北地区多年平均太阳辐射值最高,南部低纬度区域太阳辐射最低,除丰宁站以外的44个站点均呈现太阳辐射减少趋势,最大减少幅度达-27 MJ·m-2·a-1,减少趋势最为明显的是中南部地区。人类活动造成的大气污染物增加可能是海河流域太阳辐射减少的主要原因。
中文关键词:太阳辐射  适用性评估  时空变化规律  海河流域
 
Calculation Model Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Variations of Solar Radiation in Haihe Basin
Abstract:Solar radiation is an important driving force in the process of the formation and evolution of climate system.It is of great significance to study the calculation model and spatial temporal change of solar radiation.Based on the observation data of solar radiation at 6 stations and meteorological data of sunshine hours and temperature at 45 stations of Haihe basin during 1960—2012,four solar radiation calculation models are built.The average relative error and Nash Sutcliffe equation are used as the model evaluation criterion.On this basis optimal model is used to calculate the multi year monthly solar radiation at 45 stations,and then to research the spatial-temporal variations of solar radiation in Haihe basin.Results show that Angstr?m-Prescott model is the most suitable for global radiation estimation in Haihe basin.The annual solar radiation declines at a mean rate of -10 MJ ·m-2·a-1 in 1960—2012.Variations of solar radiation in four seasons all show a similarly significant decreasing trend,with highest decreasing rates in summer,then autumn,lowest in spring and winter.Spatially,multi year average solar radiation during 1960—2012 is highest in the northwest part of the region,lowest in the southern region.Solar radiations at 44 stations (except for Fengning) show decreasing trend,while the largest decreasing rate is -27 MJ· m-2 ·a-1,mostly occur in the south central part of the region,where average solar radiation is the lowest.Increasing of air pollutants caused by human activity might be the main reason for the decline of solar radiation in Haihe basin.
Keywords:solar radiation  applicability evaluation  spatial-temporal variation  Haihe basin
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