1951-2013年浙江热量资源变化研究
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引用本文:肖晶晶,郭芬芬,李正泉,等.1951-2013年浙江热量资源变化研究[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):110-118.Xiao Jingjing, Guo Fenfen, Li Zhengquan, et al.Study on Thermal Resources Variation in Zhejiang During 1951—2013[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(3):110-118.
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作者单位
肖晶晶,郭芬芬,李正泉,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.03.017
基金项目:
中文摘要:基于1951—2013年浙江71个常规气象站逐日气温资料和1971—2013年土温资料,采用M-K检验、气候倾向率等气候统计诊断方法,分析浙江地区气温、地温、农业界限温度等热量资源要素的变化规律及气候变化下浙江热量资源区划的年代际变化特征,以期为充分利用气候资源、优化农业结构和作物引种提供科学依据。研究结果表明:1)1951—2013年浙江四季和年平均气温变化幅度分别为0.24 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)、0.10 ℃·10a-1(P0.05)、0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)、0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.05)和0.18 ℃·10a-1(P0.05),突变起始年分别为1997、2005、2002、1993和1999年;2)1951—2013年浙江平均极端最高、最低气温的气候倾向率分别为0.10 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)和0.30 ℃·10a-1(P0.10);3)土温与农业密切相关,0—20 cm土温与日平均温度通过0.01显著性相关;4)气候变暖导致浙江农业界限温度(0 ℃、5 ℃、10 ℃、15 ℃、20 ℃)初日提前、终日延后、持续天数和积温增加,农业界限温度初日、终日、持续天数和积温的气候倾向率平均值分别为-3.2~-1.5 d·10a-1、0.3~1.6 d·10a-1、2.8~4.1 d·10a-1、95.7~107.3 ℃·d·10a-1;5)1951—2013年浙江初霜延迟、终霜提前、无霜期增加,初霜、终霜和无霜期气候倾向率平均为-3.62 d·10a-1、1.32 d·10a-1和4.97 d·10a-1;6)气候变暖导致浙江热量资源区划变化显著,2001—2010年淳安建德浦江义乌诸暨嵊州天台三门线以南地区≥10 ℃积温超过5600 ℃·d。
中文关键词:热量资源  农业界限温度  农业分区  浙江
 
Study on Thermal Resources Variation in Zhejiang During 1951—2013
Abstract:Based on daily temperature from 1951 to 2013 and the soil temperature from 1971 to 2013 from 71 meteorological stations in Zhejiang province,the change regularity of temperature,surface temperature,agricultural threshold temperature,and other thermal resources and the decadal variation characteristics of thermal resources regionalization in Zhejiang under the background of climate changing were studied in this paper for the full use of climate resources,optimize the structure of agriculture and crop introduction.The study adopted the climatic statistical methods of M-K test and climate tendency rate.The results showed as follows.1)That the four seasons and yearly mean temperatures increased obviously at the rate of 0.24 ℃·10a-1(P0.01),0.10 ℃·10a-1(P0.05),0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.01),0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.05) and 0.18 ℃·10a-1 (P0.05) during 1951—2013.The initial year of abrupt change is 1997,2005,2002,1993 and 1999.2)The average extreme maximum and minimum temperature increased obviously at the rate of 0.10 ℃·10a-1 (P0.01),and 0.30 ℃·10a-1 (P0.10) during 1951—2013.3)The soil temperature was closely related to agriculture,while 0—20 cm soil temperature was significantly correlated (P0.01) with daily average temperature.4)The climate warming leaded to the agricultural threshold temperature in Zhejiang (0 ℃,5 ℃,10 ℃,15 ℃,20 ℃),the first day was in advance,the last day delayed,the duration and accumulated temperature were increased.The average climatic tendency of agricultural threshold temperature first day,last day,duration and accumulative temperature were -3.2 to -1.5 d·10a-1,0.3 to 1.6 d·10a-1,2.8 to 4.1 d·10a-1 and 95.7 to 107.3 ℃·d·10a-1 respectively.5)The first frost day was delayed,the last frost day in advance,frost free period increased,the average climatic tendency were -3.62 d·10a-1,1.32 d·10a-1 and 4.97 d·10a-1.6)The heating resource increased obviously with the global warming,which the ≥10 ℃ accumulative temperature was more than 5600 ℃· d during 20012010 under the line of Chun’an,Jiande,Pujiang,Yiwu,Zhuji,Shenzhou,Tiantai and Sanmen.
Keywords:thermal resources  agricultural threshold temperature  agricultural zoning  Zhejiang
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