WRF中不同积云对流参数化方案对青岛降水预报影响的对比分析
    点此下载全文
引用本文:马 艳,顾 瑜,陈 尚,等.WRF中不同积云对流参数化方案对青岛降水预报影响的对比分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):19-26.Ma Yan,Gu Yu,Chen Shang,et al.Comparative Analysis on Impact of Different Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes in WRF on Rainfall Forecast Around Qingdao[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2017,40(4):19-26.
摘要点击次数: 64
全文下载次数: 20
作者单位
马 艳,顾 瑜,陈 尚,等  
DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.04.003
基金项目:
中文摘要:1~10 km水平分辨率是中尺度模式是否采用积云对流参数化方案的“灰色带”。基于青岛市气象局9 km分辨率WRF模式,分别选择 KF、GD和BMJ 三种积云对流参数化方案对青岛5次大范围降雨过程进行预报试验,分析比较不同积云对流参数化方案对青岛地区降水预报效果的影响。结果表明,这三种积云对流参数化方案对不同量级的降雨具有不同的预报性能:BMJ对小雨预报性能最佳;没有考虑积云对流参数化过程的控制试验对中雨的预报效果最好,KF 方案次之;GD方案对大雨和暴雨预报效果均较好。对稳定性降水,GD方案对沿海站点降雨量预报效果较好,KF方案则对内陆站点预报性能较好;对对流性降水,BMJ方案无论是在沿海站点还是在内陆站点都有比较好的预报效果。在降雨空间分布上,对稳定性降水过程,各试验方案均模拟出了小于50 mm的降雨区,对大于100 mm强降雨区,GD方案具有较好的预报效果;对对流性降水过程,BMJ方案预报效果整体较好。
中文关键词:WRF  积云对流参数化方案  降水  青岛
 
Comparative Analysis on Impact of Different Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes in WRF on Rainfall Forecast Around Qingdao
Abstract:Horizontal resolution of 110 km is a “gray belt”for weather or not to use the cumulus convective parameterization scheme in the mesoscale model. Five rainfall events in Qingdao are simulated using WRF model of horizontal resolution 9 km in Qingdao Meteorological Office with 3 cumulus convective parameterization schemes KF, GD and BMJ respectively, and the impact of different cumulus parameterization schemes on the forecast ability of rainfall in Qingdao is analyzed. The results showed that the 3 cumulus convective parameterization schemes had different forecast ability on different rainfall levels. BMJ did best for light rain, non convective parameterization scheme did the best job for moderate rain and KF scheme took the second place. GD scheme was good for heavy rain and torrential rain. GD scheme performed well on the coastal stations and KF shown good performance on inland stations for the case of stability rainfall process. For convective rainfall process, BMJ did best no matter on coastal or inland stations. In the rainfall distribution, all schemes could simulate rainfall areas less than 50 mm in the case of stability rainfall process, and GD scheme did better for the rainfall areas more than 100 mm. In general, BMJ performed better in the case of convective rainfall process.
Keywords:WRF  cumulus convective parameterization scheme  rainfall  Qingdao
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
主管单位:河南省气象局      单位地址:郑州市金水路110号
电话:0371-65922877      传真:0371-65922877      邮编:450003      E-mail:zzhnqx@126.com
版权所有:《气象与环境科学》编辑部      技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司