山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型
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引用本文:高迎娟,王智宇,郭阳,等.山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(2):42-47.Gao Yingjuan1,Wang Zhiyu1,Guo Yang2,Yin Wenyu3.Weather Forecast Model of Amur Grape Quality[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(2):42-47.
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高迎娟,王智宇,郭阳,等  
DOI:doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.02.006
基金项目:
中文摘要:山葡萄的品质决定着葡萄酒的质量,葡萄浆果糖度决定着葡萄品质。葡萄成熟过程中浆果含糖量和含酸量是相互制约的,含糖量主要呈对数略显“S”型变化,含酸量呈指数曲线型变化。将成熟期葡萄浆果含糖量作为葡萄品质的评价指标,利用通化产区1995-2016年成熟期山葡萄浆果含糖量的实测数据与气象条件进行相关分析,得出山葡萄品质与5月9月上旬积温、7月8月日照时数、5月9月上旬水热系数、8月9月上旬积温关系密切,相关关系均通过了α为0.05或0.01的显著性检验。利用多元回归统计方法建立了山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型,模型的判定系数R2为0.815,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验。模型的拟合检验平均误差百分率为3.91%。利用2017年、2018年资料对模型进行试报检验,误差百分率分别为1.59%和3.79%。模型具有较高的准确率,能够满足通化产区山葡萄栽培对气象预报和服务的需求。
中文关键词:山葡萄  品质  预报模型
 
Weather Forecast Model of Amur Grape Quality
Abstract:The quality of Amur grape (vitis amurensis Rupr.) determines wine quality and the content of fructose determines the quality of Amur grape.The sugar and acid contents in berries restrict each other during grape ripening.The sugar content shows a logarithmic distribution with a ’S’ type change.The acid content presents an exponential distribution.Taking the sugar content of mature berries as evaluation standard of grape quality,the paper conducts a correlation analysis between the measured data of mature berries sugar contents in Tonghua from 1995 to 2016 and the weather conditions.The results show that the quality of Amur grape has a close relationship with the accumulated temperature and hydrothermal coefficient from May to early September,the sunshine hours from July to August,and the accumulated temperature from August to September.The correlations have all passed the significant test with α of 0.05 or 0.01.A prediction model has been built between the Amur grape quality and weather conditions using multiple regression statistical methods.The determination coefficient R2 is 0.815,which passed the significant test with α of 0.01.The average error percentage of the model’s fitting test is 3.91%.The data in 2017 and 2018 has been used to test the forecast model,while the error percentage of the model is 1.59% and 3.79%,respectively.The model has a high accuracy rate which could meet the needs of weather forecast and service of Amur grape cultivation in Tonghua.
Keywords:Amur grape  quality  forecast model
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