江苏省雷灾特征分析及灾情灰色关联评估
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引用本文:刘佼,金琼,韩照全.江苏省雷灾特征分析及灾情灰色关联评估[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(2):97-103.Liu Jiao1,Jin Qiong1,Han Zhaoquan2.Analysis of Lightning Characteristics in Jiangsu Province and Grey Correlation Assessment of Disaster Situation[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(2):97-103.
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刘佼,金琼,韩照全  
DOI:doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.02.014
基金项目:
中文摘要:雷电是雷雨云之间或云地之间产生的瞬间放电现象。雷电产生的强大的雷电流、高电压及强电磁辐射产生的巨大破坏力会导致各类无法挽回的损失。因此在对各类雷电灾害特征进行全面统计分析的基础上建立合适的评估模型,对雷电评估与防护工作的开展有一定的实际参考与指导意义。根据1998-2009年雷电灾害汇编资料及近30年江苏省雷暴日资料,利用数理统计方法分析了江苏省近12年来的人员伤亡、经济损失等雷电灾害特征及行业雷灾特征,在此基础上结合灰色理论建立与之相适应的灰色评估模型。经统计分析发现,近12年间江苏省雷灾程度较重的城市集中在扬州、泰州、无锡、盐城等市;雷灾经济损失涉及的行业主要分布在石油化工、制造业、居民用户及广电通信等行业。依据灰色研究理论,在对原始数据作归一化处理的基础上再对各因素进行比较,同时在对分级指标进行函数转换的前提下统一灾情等级的划分标准。依据灰色关联分析方法,以灰色关联系数求解公式为基础,最终确立江苏省雷电灾害的灰色关联度,并根据该灾害关联度从大到小的排序即关联度序,得到江苏省各市灾情轻重的比较结果:近年来江苏省无锡、苏州、扬州市为重灾及中灾区,其余各市均为小灾区。
中文关键词:雷灾  灰色理论  关联度  关联分析
 
Analysis of Lightning Characteristics in Jiangsu Province and Grey Correlation Assessment of Disaster Situation
Abstract:Lightning is a transient discharge phenomenon between thunderstorm clouds or clouds and land. It could cause great destructive power due to strong lightning current and high voltage and strong radiation then lead to various irreparable losses. Therefore establishing a suitable evaluation model on the basis of comprehensive statistical analysis of the characteristics of all kinds of lightning disasters have a great practical reference and guiding significance for effective development of lightning assessment and protection. The characteristics of lightning disaster on casualties and economic losses and industry in Jiangsu province in recent 12 years were analyzed by mathematical statistics according to the compilation data of lightning disaster from 1998-2009 and the data of thunderstorm days in recent 30 years in Jiangsu province. On this basis a grey evaluation model was established in accordance with the grey theory.It was found that the city with heavy disaster degree concentrated in Yangzhou,Taizhou,Wuxi,Yancheng city in Jiangsu province in recent 12 years and lightning disaster economic loss is mainly involved in the industry of petroleum chemical,manufacturing,residential users and communication. The factors were compared on the basis of normalization of the original data according to the theory of grey research and unified dividing standard of disaster degrees on the premise of function conversion to the classification index. The gray correlation degree of lightning disaster in Jiangsu province was established on the basis of the solving formula of grey correlation coefficient according to the grey relational analysis method,the comparative relationship between the seriousness of the disasters in each city were obtained finally. The results showed that Wuxi,Suzhou and Yangzhou were the worst and moderate hit areas,and the rest cities in Jiangsu were light hit areas in recent years.
Keywords:lightning disaster  grey theory  correlation degree  correlation analysis
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